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Amid the program’s worst season since winning nine games in 1968-69, Syracuse is fighting to make the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament. In the new-look ACC, which expanded to 18 teams last summer, SU has the 15th-best record entering its final four games.

Because of expansion, the bottom three teams in the conference — currently Boston College, NC State and Miami — won’t qualify for the ACC Tournament. On Wednesday, the Orange can essentially seal a place in the 15-team field with a win over the Wolfpack.

However, they wouldn’t be in this position if not for back-breaking second-half offensive struggles across their three-game losing streak versus the Hurricanes, North Carolina and Pittsburgh.

Here’s a breakdown of Syracuse’s offensive collapses, using ESPN Analytics’ Win Probability metric, that led to its three straight losses:

SU’s Win Expectancy decreases from 60.2% to 20.8% in a 1:47 span vs. Miami

Following a 5-0 run propelled by a Jaquan Carlos 3-pointer and a Carlos dish to Eddie Lampkin Jr. down low, Syracuse took a 61-58 lead with 9:26 remaining in the game. This forced Miami to call a timeout, as SU had a game-high 60.2% win probability despite the Hurricanes having an 83.2% win probability late in the first half. However, a Paul Djobet 3-pointer out of the timeout ties the game 61-61.

Trying to respond, SU initially shows a horns set with Petar Majstorovic and Lampkin at the top of the key. Carlos instantly dumps the ball off to Majstorovic. After doing so, Carlos runs left and sets a screen for J.J. Starling in the left corner. Starling fakes going toward the ball but cuts toward the rim, causing a slight miscommunication between Miami guards Jalil Bethea and A.J. Staton-McCray. However, Staton-McCray recovers on the switch and picks up Starling.

This initially leaves Majstorovic flustered without a dribble, but he gets the ball back to Carlos. While this happens, Chris Bell cuts to the top of the key replacing where Lampkin was while Lampkin cuts into the paint. But Hurricanes center Lynn Kidd has his eyes on Majstorovic and loses track of Lampkin.

With Kidd late to rotate, Starling sets a back screen on him to force Staton-McCray into picking up Lampkin on a mismatch down low. Seeing the mismatch, Kidd and Staton-McCray switch back, but Lampkin has already established inside positioning as Carlos begins cutting toward the paint.

Carlos beats Bethea downhill and has an open lane to the rim because Lampkin is sealing off Kidd, forcing Staton-McCray to step into the paint. Though this leaves Starling open and he ducks into the right corner uncontested. Carlos gets him a clean look, but Starling, just a 28.4% 3-point shooter, misses the mark on a perfect look.

Following Starling’s miss, Bethea converts on two free throws to give the Hurricanes a 63-61 advantage. Trying to respond, the Orange again runs a horns set. Though this time, Starling is the primary ball-handler. While he also dumps off to Majstorovic on the left, Starling dashes right and uses a Lampkin screen. The screen gives Lampkin space to receive a pass from Majstorovic as Starling curls back up-court.

Starling is initially guarded by Staton-McCray, but Majstorovic’s screen forces a switch while Lampkin’s dribble handoff causes further confusion. This leaves Kidd and Djobet — who was on Majstorovic — to pick up Starling.

Lampkin immediately calls for the ball near the free-throw line as he has a mismatch against Staton-McCray. But Djobet, who is 6-foot-7, quickly scrams down low to pick Lampkin up and Staton-McCray rotates onto Majstorovic. Though Lampkin has inside positioning and a mismatch, Majstorovic hesitates to pass him the ball from the top of the key and instead swings to Chris Bell on the left wing.

Bell pump fakes a pass to Lampkin but dribbles right and dishes back to Starling at the top of the key after not getting it to the center. With 10 seconds left on the shot clock, SU reverts to letting Starling go to work one-on-one with Kidd — another mismatch. While he uses his speed to get downhill, Starling’s layup misses with a second left on the shot clock.

Though Miami had a transition opportunity off the miss, it turned the ball over, keeping the score within a possession. The Orange return to Carlos as the ball handler, and again have Lampkin and Majstorovic at the top of the key, though not in a horns set.

Instead, Lampkin sets Carlos a screen and Majstorovic curls around Lampkin to create confusion. This results in Lampkin having a mismatch down low against Bethea. However, upon receiving the ball, Majstorovic doesn’t have an angle to get it there, so he feeds Starling in the right corner.

While Lampkin is posted up, Starling’s eyes aren’t there right away and Bethea quickly gets in front of Lampkin, forcing Starling to dribble back toward the top of the key. Then, Starling picks up his dribble and is forced to give it back to Majstorovic, who cuts to the top of the key. As this happens, Bell is left wide open in the left corner. Yet, Majstorovic throws the ball away into the first row of the stands.

Following the ensuing media timeout, Matthew Cleveland nails a 3, increasing Miami’s lead to 66-61. This brought its win probability to 79.2% — a 48.4% increase since SU led 61-58 1:47 prior.

SU’s Win Expectancy decreases from 47.3% to 8% in a 1:08 span vs. North Carolina

After trailing by as many as 11 points early in the second half, Syracuse cut its deficit to 65-64 with 8:34 remaining in the game. At that point, SU’s win probability was at 47.3%. However, North Carolina’s Jae’Lyn Withers, who scored a season-high 19 points, finds the soft spot in the Orange’s zone on the ensuing possession and extends its lead to three points.

Trying to answer, Starling — SU’s only guard on the floor — brings the ball up before dumping it off to Majstorovic on the left wing. Majstorovic then fakes a handoff to Starling and waits for Bell and Lampkin to run an action near the right elbow. However, UNC’s Ian Jackson does a good job sticking with Bell as he darts toward the top of the key, forcing Majstorovic to pass to Starling as he cuts toward him.

From there, the play is broken. Majstorovic sets Starling a screen near midcourt before quickly rolling, which forces Withers to switch onto Starling. As Starling glides into the paint, Majstorovic tries to seal him an angle inside, while Lampkin, Bell and Lucas Taylor stand still.

With Jackson hedging the paint, Bell is left open on the right wing, but Starling instead opts to spin right and try to get around Withers, which he fails to do. Starling then tries to maneuver toward the other side of the rim but remains clamped.

Though he could likely find Bell or Taylor for an open 3-point look, Starling forces a floater, which he air-balled. On the other end, Withers connects on an and-one to extend the Tar Heels’ lead to 70-64.

Out of the media timeout, Syracuse subs out Starling for Carlos. Upon Carlos bringing the ball across halfcourt, Lampkin sets him a high screen, but UNC’s RJ Davis fights under it to stick with Carlos. Lampkin then travels to the top of the key to set a screen for a cutting Taylor, but Jackson evades it.

As this happens, Carlos brings the ball toward the top of the key and Taylor slightly gets in Davis’ way. Then, Lampkin seals off Davis as he tries catching up to Carlos with a screen. Because Ven-Allen Lubin doesn’t want Davis to have a mismatch with Lampkin, he sags off Carlos.

This gives the point guard a wide-open look at the right elbow. However, Carlos, SU’s second-lowest-rated player with a 94.8 offensive rating, per KenPom, misses the shot. Following the miss, the Tar Heels get out in transition again, leading to another Withers and-one. This gives North Carolina a 73-64 lead with 7:26 remaining, increasing its win probability to 92.0% — a 39.3% increase from when it led 65-64.

SU’s Win Expectancy decreases from 59.2% to 21.8% in a 2:16 span vs. Pitt

After Lampkin corrals this rebound, Syracuse’s win probability is 59.2% — its highest clip in the second half since 71.5% in the opening minute. However, the Orange failed to build on that momentum after Bell, who scored a season-high 23 points, hits back iron on a 3. On the other end, Jaland Lowe then cuts Pitt’s deficit to 56-55.

Trying to extend their lead, the Orange runs an isolation for Lampkin on the left block. As Lampkin tries backing down Cameron Corhen, Ishmael Leggett instantly scampers down low to double-team him. This forces Lowe to rotate off Carlos toward Bell, so Lampkin tries firing a pass to Carlos at the top of the key.

Brandin Cummings was essentially guarding Taylor on the right wing, but he tips the pass after reading Lampkin’s eyes. While Carlos retrieved the ball, there were only 10 seconds left on the shot clock when a Lampkin screen prompted the Panthers to trap Carlos.

Not wanting to leave Lampkin open, Zack Austin rotates off Majstorovic to pick up the center down low. This in turn leaves Majstorovic wide open at the top of the key, but the freshman misses his wide-open look. Following the miss, Leggett drains a 3-pointer, giving Pitt its first lead of the game at 58-56.

With Starling not on the court, Syracuse tries to regain the lead by running a two-man action between Carlos and Majstorovic. While this leads Majstorovic to have a mismatch against Leggett, the Panthers collapse the paint on him and he fails to see Taylor wide-open on the right wing.

As three defenders crash onto him, Majstorovic tries to dump a pass to Lampkin on the right block, but it’s knocked away and stolen. This leads to Austin scoring a layup while getting fouled on the other end, but he misses his free throw.

After the missed free throw, Starling, back in the game, pushes the pace before slowing down in the halfcourt. After settling down, Starling dumps down low to Lampkin, who is isolated against Corhen. But like they did two possessions prior, the Panthers instantly sent a double-team at Lampkin.

As Lampkin is hounded, he’s forced to feed Jyáre Davis under the rim. Because of how Pitt’s defense rotated and collapsed the paint, Bell is wide open in the right corner and Carlos is wide open at the top of the key. However, Davis never turns his head, so he reverts back to passing to Lampkin a few feet in front of the left corner.

Sticking with their strategy, the Panthers instantly sent another double-team at Lampkin as Leggett, who was guarding Davis, bolts toward the center. This prompted Lampkin to play hot potato with Davis, who was still under the rim. Anticipating an open look, Davis goes up for a layup.

However, Austin rotates right onto him and blocks his shot. This leads to Leggett draining a triple, giving Pitt a 63-56 lead with 8:27 remaining. This effectively put the game out of reach, as Pitt saw its win expectancy balloon to 78.2% — a 39.3% increase from when it trailed 65-64.

Published on February 25, 2025 at 11:04 pm

Contact Justin: justingirshon@gmail.com | @JustinGirshon