Get the latest Syracuse news delivered right to your inbox.
Subscribe to our sports newsletter here.

After picking up its first victory over a top-40 KenPom team in two years, Syracuse hosts Clemson in the Carrier Dome on Wednesday for its regular-season finale. The Tigers haven’t lost since the end of January, winning five-straight games and six of seven overall to launch back up the Atlantic Coast Conference standings.

A win over the Tigers would help boost the Orange’s NCAA Tournament resume, although a deep run in the conference tournament may be the only way to salvage a postseason bid. Syracuse (14-8, 8-7 Atlantic Coast) had an opportunity for a Quadrant 1 win earlier in the season, but it lost to Clemson at Littlejohn Coliseum in South Carolina.

Here’s everything you need to know about the Tigers (15-5, 9-5) before the two programs meet again:

All-time series

Clemson leads 7-4.

Last time they played

Largely due to its commanding offense, Clemson quickly built a double-digit lead that extended to 20 by halftime. The Orange hit just three first-half field goals, including two over the final 19 minutes after Buddy Boeheim connected on SU’s first possession.

In the second half, Joe Girard III found success driving against the Tigers and finished with a game-high 19 points. But Aamir Simms recorded a double-double (18 points, 11 rebounds) and Nick Honor hit five 3-pointers, propelling Clemson to rebound from four losses in six games after starting conference play near the top of the ACC’s standings.

KenPom odds 

Syracuse has a 51% chance to win, with a projected score of 68-67

The Clemson report

Clemson hasn’t lost since it last played Syracuse on Feb. 6, including a 60-39 blowout of Wake Forest on Wednesday. Simms is the team’s only player averaging double-digits, but strong defensive play has meant the Tigers don’t need to score many points to still win games. They play at one of the slower tempos in the country, too, per KenPom.

Three straight blowout losses to Virginia, Georgia Tech and Florida State hurt the early-season run Clemson had created with multiple wins against ranked opponents. Simms ranks 97th in effective field goal percentage and 67th in true shooting percentage, per KenPom, and he also sits fourth in the conference with a 55.3% field goal percentage. Honor also ranks nationally for his ability to take care of the ball and facilitate Clemson’s offense — with a turnover rate of 13.5 and an assist rate of 21.8.

How Syracuse beats the Tigers 

Making more than three shots in a half is an excellent start. But the Orange will need to find ways to consistently crack the Tigers’ defense like they did in the second half of their first meeting. With Kadary Richmond leaving the North Carolina game injured, the majority of that responsibility may fall on Buddy and Girard.

If Quincy Guerrier and Richmond are still limited, a bounce-back game from Alan Griffin will be key to complementing the penetration of Girard and the occasional 3-point shots — and, ideally, 3-point makes — from Buddy. Griffin scored 26 points against Georgia Tech but just four against North Carolina on Monday. Defensively, Syracuse needs to force Clemson to beat it from beyond the 3-point arc and prevent Simms from dominating inside again.

Player to watch: Nick Honor, guard, No. 4

Honor torched the Orange from beyond the arc in February despite Clemson having one of the lowest 3PA/FGA percentages in the country — 274th at 40.6%, per KenPom. He hit three within the first five minutes, even with Syracuse labeling him as the Tigers’ best shooter before the game, Marek Dolezaj said. 

“That’s how you’re not going to win a game on the road,” he said.

He sat out last season following a transfer from Fordham after one season, and he’s started seven of Clemson’s 20 games this year. His 9.1 points per game ranks second on the Tigers behind only Simms, and, defensively, his 3.6% steal percentage ranks 67th in the country. Honor scored a season-high 21 points in an overtime win against NC State on Jan. 5.

Stat to know: 89.4

Clemson’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 11th in the country, and it has held opponents under 56 points in seven games this season. Arguably its strongest defensive performance came against the Demon Deacons on Feb. 24, when it held them to under 26% shooting on both 2-point and 3-point shots.

Published on March 2, 2021 at 10:47 pm

Contact Andrew: arcrane@syr.edu | @CraneAndrew