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Buffalo comes to the Carrier Dome on Saturday night to face Syracuse (5-1, 1-0 Atlantic Coast) in its second-to-last nonconference game of the season. The Bulls (3-2, 1-1 Mid-American) will be without head coach Jim Whitesell, who’s currently quarantining after a COVID-19 exposure outside of the program, and the team has won its last two games.

Here’s everything you need to know about UB before it plays Syracuse in the Dome for the second time in three seasons:

All-time series

Syracuse leads, 28-6

Last time they played

Buffalo — ranked No. 14, 11-0 and en route to a Round of 32 run in the NCAA Tournament — traveled to the Carrier Dome in December 2018 and stunned the Orange 71-59. Elijah Hughes led all Syracuse scorers with 16 points, and the Bulls limited top SU option Tyus Battle to just 11 points on 5-for-14 shooting.

CJ Massinburg scored 25 points, Jeremy Harris added 18 and UB pulled away after trailing at halftime. The game marked the second consecutive defeat for the Orange and their first against UB since 1963 (18-straight wins).

KenPom odds

Syracuse has an 88% chance to win, with a projected score of 82-69

The Buffalo report

Buffalo graduated two starters from last season’s 20-12 team that lost to Miami (Ohio) in the first round of the Mid-American Conference tournament, and it’s now led by junior Jeenathan Williams on offense. Defensively, the Bulls will benefit from the return of junior forward Josh Mballa, who grabbed the most rebounds by a UB player (308) in over 40 years after he transferred from Texas Tech. 

He missed three games with a foot injury and was on a minutes limit in the first half of the Bulls’ last game against Miami, assistant coach Angres Thorpe told The Daily Orange, but he has the potential to play deeper into Saturday’s game.

During Mballa’s absence, Tra’Von Fagan and LaQuill Hardnett saw increased minutes and starts, filling in the post presence around center Brock Bertram. Senior guard Jayvon Graves has averaged 16.4 points per game for the Bulls through their first five games, while Ronaldo Segu — the MAC’s Sixth Man of the Year in 2019-20 — sits third at 13.6. 

The Bulls don’t take a ton of 3s, so if Syracuse is able to connect from deep like it did against Rider and Boston College, that’d make it difficult for the Bulls to keep pace with SU’s offense. UB’s 3PA/FGA ratio is 31.1, which is 268th in the country.

How Syracuse beats the Bulls

Syracuse escaped Northeastern despite just two made 3-pointers, but a repeat performance beyond the arc might not lead to the same result against UB. The Bulls have always played strong interior man-to-man defense, and that’ll force the Orange to operate much of their offense from the top of the key.

But SU may also need those 3s because Buffalo scored 90 points and shot 50.8% from the field against Miami on Tuesday, reaching a number that the Orange have eclipsed just once this year. If Buddy Boeheim and Alan Griffin make more than one combined shot from the field and zero combined 3s, and if Qunicy Guerrier’s physical play can help score interior baskets when needed against strong defenders, Syracuse will leave the Carrier Dome with its third consecutive win.

Stat to know: 14.1

This stat is UB’s average possession length, which is the fifth-fastest in the country. The Bulls tend to play quick on offense and don’t settle into sets deep into the shot clock, and that’s contributed to 81 and 90-point outputs the past two games. 

Player to watch: Jeenathan Williams, forward, No. 11

In the last matchup between these two teams, Williams was just a freshman, the one with a lot of potential who played one minute off the bench. But two years later, the Rochester native has evolved into the focal point of UB’s offense, averaging 20.0 points per game and leading the Bulls with 8.6 rebounds per contest, too. 

Williams takes 34.4% of Buffalo’s shots, per KenPom, which ranks 34th in the country, and his 31.1 percentage of possessions used sits 53rd. If UB has a shot at an upset — or a tangible chance late in the second half — Williams will be the reason why. For better or worse, he’ll end up finishing the majority of UB’s possessions with the ball rolling off his fingertips.

Published on December 18, 2020 at 10:44 pm

Contact Andrew: arcrane@syr.edu | @CraneAndrew