S
yracuse’s upset over then-No. 7 North Carolina at the JMA Wireless Dome last year sparked a 5-2 record to end the regular season en route to clinching the program’s first 20-win campaign since 2018-19. However, the Orange — who bolster a new-look roster following nine departures from last year’s squad — have failed to capitalize on that momentum in Adrian Autry’s second year as head coach.
The newest low was a 91-84 loss to Miami, the worst team in the Atlantic Coast Conference, on Tuesday. Fighting to make the ACC Tournament, which the top 15-of-18 teams in the conference qualify for, the Orange now sit 14th in the conference standings.
Following the defeat, Syracuse returns home to face North Carolina. The Tar Heels, coming off a 20-point road loss to Clemson, have underperformed this season. But they still rank No. 45 in KenPom’s rankings and No. 51 in the Net Rankings.
Here’s everything to know before Syracuse’s (11-14, 5-9 ACC) matchup against North Carolina (14-11, 7-6 ACC):
All-time series
North Carolina leads 17-7.
Fans storm the court at the JMA Wireless Dome after Syracuse upset North Carolina on Feb. 13, 2024. Arnav Pokhrel | Staff Photographer
Last time they played
After obliterating Syracuse 103-67 in Chapel Hill a month prior, North Carolina traveled to the JMA Wireless Dome on Feb. 13, 2024. The Tar Heels were ranked No. 7 in the country, while SU was coming off a home loss to Clemson.
However, the Orange collected their best win under Autry, upsetting UNC 86-79. After the game was knotted 42-42 at halftime, Syracuse outscored North Carolina 44-37 in the second half to claim the victory. SU was propelled by Judah Mintz and J.J. Starling, who combined for 48 points on 17-of-26 shooting while playing the entire game.
Meanwhile, Maliq Brown (14) and Chris Bell (13) also scored in double figures. On the other side, the Tar Heels were led by RJ Davis’ 19 points while Cormac Ryan (18), Armando Bacot (14) and Harrison Ingram (14) reached double digits. Of all those players, Starling, Bell and Davis are the only players still with their respective programs.
KenPom odds
Syracuse has a 28% chance of winning, with a projected final score of 81-75.
The Tar Heel report
Following its loss to Syracuse in the 2023-24 season, North Carolina captured the ACC regular-season title by finishing conference play 17-3. The Tar Heels advanced to the ACC Tournament Championship but fell to future Final Four team NC State.
Still, they earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and reached the Sweet 16 before falling to Alabama. Despite losing Bacot, Ryan and Ingram, UNC was again expected to be an elite team in 2024-25, entering the season No. 9 in the AP Poll. Additionally, it was picked to finish second in the ACC’s Preseason Poll.
However, the preseason has been the peak of UNC’s season. Two games into the year, it dropped a narrow contest to now-No. 17 Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse. While that was still an encouraging early-season road result, the Tar Heels then dropped consecutive games to now-No. 1 Auburn, now-No. 11 Michigan State and now-No. 2 Alabama.
The Tar Heels haven’t recovered since then, beating just one ranked team while holding a record of just over .500 in a relatively weak ACC. Though Davis’ production has fallen off, he’s still one of the best scoring guards in the conference and is supported by five-star freshman Ian Jackson and veterans Elliot Cadeau and Seth Trimble.
Arguably the biggest difference between last year’s North Carolina squad is its lack of an inside presence. With Bacot out of the picture, UNC’s primary big men pieces are Ven-Allen Lubin, Jalen Washington and Jae’Lyn Withers. They combine for 17.6 points and 13 rebounds per game. Last year, Bacot averaged 14.5 points and 10.3 rebounds himself.
Joe Zhao | Design Editor
How Syracuse beats North Carolina
Per usual, the 3-point battle will be crucial for Syracuse. The Orange are coming in strong — at least for themselves — shooting 8-of-21 from distance against Miami. However, the Hurricanes made 10-of-20 3s en route to a seven-point win.
Heading into the matchup against the Tar Heels, SU’s 32.1% 3-point percentage ranks 262nd in the country. Meanwhile, North Carolina’s 32.3% clip ranks 248th. In a game that hypothetically should stay within a couple of possessions, 3-pointers could be the difference between UNC inching toward the NCAA Tournament bubble or SU getting breathing room toward making the ACC Tournament.
Stat to know: 16.67%
North Carolina enters the JMA Wireless Dome ranked 51st in the Net Rankings, making it a Quad 2 opponent for Syracuse. Throughout the year, the Orange have consistently struggled against such teams, going 1-5 for a 16.67% winning percentage. SU’s lone win, though, was its last Quad 2 game against Cal. Meanwhile, the Orange have gone 0-7 versus Quad 1 teams.
On the flipside, this is considered a Quad 3 matchup for the Tar Heels, teams they’ve accumulated a 3-1 record against — only falling 72-71 to Stanford at home. Against Quad 4 opponents, North Carolina is 5-0.
Player to watch: RJ Davis, guard, No. 4
Davis, a fifth-year senior, has been one of the most prolific scorers in college basketball since his sophomore year. In UNC’s run to the 2022 NCAA Tournament title game, Davis exploded for 30 points in an overtime win over No. 1 seed Baylor in the round of 32 and added 18 in a Final Four win over Duke.
He averaged 13.5 points as a sophomore before improving to 16.1 as a junior. Then, following Caleb Love’s transfer to Arizona, Davis became the clear-cut No. 1 option in North Carolina’s offense and averaged an ACC-high 21.2 points per game last year.
However, he’s regressed to 17.4 points this season. The biggest difference has been the guard’s struggles from 3. Last year, he shot a career-best 39.8% from beyond the arc on 7.7 attempts per game. Thus far in 2024-25, Davis is shooting a career-worst 31.9% while attempting 6.6 3-pointers a contest.
Photograph by Leonardo Eriman | Asst. Video Editor
Published on February 13, 2025 at 12:04 am
Contact Justin: justingirshon@gmail.com | @JustinGirshon
