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Syracuse travels to Tallahassee, Florida, looking to win its first Atlantic Coast Conference game against Florida State. The Orange are coming off an 81-71 loss to Wake Forest, dropping their second conference game. Though SU trailed by as many as 16 early in the first half, it rallied and took its first lead in the second half. However, the Demon Deacons erupted from 3 down the stretch to propel their double-digit win.

Losing has become a norm for Syracuse this season, especially since J.J. Starling was ruled out indefinitely with a broken left hand. The Orange are 2-5 since their leading scorer last played in a win over Cornell, only defeating UAlbany and Bucknell. Syracuse suffered its worst loss under second-year head coach Adrian Autry during the stretch, falling 87-60 to Maryland in the Gotham Classic.

With SU’s poor start to the season, missing the NCAA Tournament for the fourth straight season has become increasingly likely. The only thing that can carry the Orange to March Madness is dominating their conference matchups, which would need to begin with a win over FSU.

The Syracuse Orange fall at home 81-71 to Wake Forest, and become the 5th ACC team eliminated from at-large contention before New Year's Day. Woof.

The Orange are now 6-7 (0-2), and will miss the NCAA Tournament for the 4th consecutive season.

This is not Syracuse basketball.… https://t.co/JgcNavVNLl

— JBR Bracketology (@JBRBracketology) December 31, 2024

Here’s everything to know about Syracuse’s (6-7, 0-2 ACC) matchup against Florida State (9-4, 0-2 ACC):

All-time series

Syracuse leads 10-7.

Last time they played …

Florida State traveled to the JMA Wireless Dome to face SU on Jan. 23, 2024. After getting blown out in Chapel Hill by North Carolina, the Orange entered the contest with consecutive wins over Pittsburgh and Miami — when Quadir Copeland hit a game-winning buzzer-beating 3. The win over the Hurricanes improved Syracuse’s record at home to 9-0.

Though that was unnoticeable down the stretch against the Seminoles. SU collapsed despite leading 54-53 with 11:54 left in the game, falling 85-69. The Orange shot 7.1% from 3 and 66.7% from the charity stripe.

Judah Mintz scored a game-high 28 points, but Starling, who scored 10 points, was SU’s only other player to score in double figures. Meanwhile, Jamir Watkins led FSU with 27 points.

KenPom odds

Syracuse has a 22% chance to win, with a projected score of 82-74.

The Seminoles report

Florida State has been in the news recently, though not in a good way. On Monday, six former FSU players filed a lawsuit against head coach Leonard Hamilton over unpaid promises of NIL compensation totaling $1.5 million. Hosting the Orange is FSU’s first game since the news broke and its first game since falling to Louisville at home on Dec. 21, 2024.

Overall, the lawsuit indicates where Florida State currently is as a program. Following dominance as one of the best teams nationally from 2016-21, the Seminoles — like SU — have missed the last three NCAA Tournaments, accumulating a 43-53 record over those three seasons.

While not as talented as his teams from 2016-21, Hamilton’s 2024-25 squad is built similarly to his past dominant teams. FSU has 10 players playing at least 10 minutes per game, only one of which is under 6-foot-5 — freshman point guard Daquan Davis, who averages the third-most points per game (8.3).

The Seminoles are led by Watkins, who is averaging 19.5 points in his senior season; Stanford’s Maxime Raynaud (20.8) is the only player in the ACC averaging more points per game. Junior transfer Malique Ewin, a 6-foot-11, 230-pound forward who played at South Plains College — a junior college — last year, is averaging 13.2 points while nabbing a team-high 7.3 rebounds.

Florida State slots in as KenPom’s No. 70 team while placing No. 82 in the Net Rankings. Like SU, the Seminoles are winless in conference play and have yet to corral a Quad 1 or Quad 2 win. The bout versus the Orange is considered Quad 3 for FSU, which is 3-0 this season in such games. Meanwhile, this is a Quad 2 game for Syracuse.

How Syracuse beats Florida State

Like SU, FSU isn’t a good 3-point shooting team. The Orange’s 28.5% clip from 3 ranks 331st in the country, while Florida State’s 32.6% places 211th. Syracuse last made more 3s than its opponent against Texas on Nov. 21, making five triples compared to the Longhorns’ four.

Additionally, causing and capitalizing on turnovers will be crucial for the Orange. Florida State’s 18.2% turnover rate ranks 221st in the country, yet SU’s 14.4% caused turnover rate places 331st. Something will have to give in Tallahassee, and Syracuse will need to have active defensive hands and get out in transition.

Stat to know: 0

Elijah Moore and Chris Bell played a combined zero second-half minutes against the Demon Deacons Tuesday. The duo is the Orange’s most talented set of 3-point shooters, but Autry didn’t turn to either despite Wake Forest exploding beyond the arc down the stretch.

SU turned to Kyle Cuffe Jr. and Lucas Taylor in their places, each playing 36 minutes and notching season-highs with 14 and 16 points, respectively. The reserves each entered following the under-16 minute timeout in the first half and played the rest of the game.

In Starling’s absence, Autry’s go-to starting lineup has been Jaquan Carlos, Moore, Bell, Donnie Freeman and Eddie Lampkin Jr. With what transpired Tuesday, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Cuffe and/or Taylor in the starting lineup against FSU.

Player to watch: Jamir Watkins, guard, No. 1

As documented above, Watkins is among the best players in the ACC. However, the Trenton, New Jersey, native began his career as a rotational player from 2020-23 at VCU. In his two years with the Rams, Watkins averaged 7.2 points and 18.4 minutes as a freshman before boosting those figures to 9.5 and 23.5 as a sophomore.

He transferred to Florida State following his sophomore season, instantly emerging as its top scorer. In his first year at FSU, he scored a team-high 15.6 points per game while shooting 45.7% from the field.

Now, as a senior, he’s up to 19.5 points on 44.9% shooting. Though he’s not a great shooter from deep, making 32.8% of his triples, Watkins excels at attacking the rim. His 9.4 free throws per game lead the ACC, leading second-place Stanford’s Jaylen Blakes’ by 2.8 attempts.

Published on January 4, 2025 at 12:04 am

Contact Justin: justingirshon@gmail.com | @JustinGirshon